What does the 'end of the pandemic' actually mean to an epidemiologist?
There is no single, universally accepted definition for when a pandemic ends [3]. Epidemiologists typically look for a combination of factors: a high proportion of the global population having immunity (from infection or vaccination), a sustained drop in deaths and severe illness, reduced pressure on hospitals, and a shift from explosive, uncontrolled spread to more predictable, seasonal circulation (endemicity) [3]. By these measures, the COVID-19 pandemic as a global health emergency has likely ended, but the virus has not disappeared.
The evidence that we have moved into an endemic phase is strong
By early 2022, modeling suggested that more than 50% of the world's population had been infected with the Omicron variant alone, and the vast majority of those infections were asymptomatic or mild [1]. Combined with high vaccination rates, this created a wall of immunity that dramatically reduced the death toll and ICU admissions [3]. The virus is now circulating at lower, more predictable levels, and public health measures have been largely lifted worldwide [3]. This is the classic pattern of a pandemic transitioning to endemicity.
Why the pandemic is not truly over: ongoing risks and new challenges
Despite the transition to endemicity, the virus continues to cause significant illness and death, particularly among vulnerable populations and in regions with low vaccine coverage [4]. New variants continue to emerge, and the inequitable distribution of vaccines globally has prolonged the pandemic's impact [4]. Furthermore, the long-term health consequences, known as Long COVID or Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), represent a new chronic disease burden that will persist for years [5]. The end of the pandemic as a crisis does not mean the end of the virus's health and societal consequences.
About These Sources
This answer is built on 5 peer-reviewed studies — published from 2022 to 2026, 2 from 2024 or later, 3 in Q1 journals, collectively cited 372 times — selected as the most relevant from 5 studies that passed quality screening, drawn from 71 papers retrieved from a database of over 500 million.
Sources used in this answer
COVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near
Modeling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimated that by March 2022, over 50% of the world would have been infected with Omicron, with 80-90% of those infections being asymptomatic, dramatically reducing the infection-detection rate from 20% to 5%.
Increase in acute mastoiditis at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic
A retrospective study in a German hospital found that non-pharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic reduced acute mastoiditis cases, but their removal in late 2022 led to a steep rise in cases, suggesting a post-pandemic 'immune debt' effect.
The end of the COVID‐19 pandemic
Argues that by early 2022, the pandemic had transitioned to endemicity based on high global immunity (70% infected or vaccinated), diminished death toll, and reduced ICU occupancy, though restrictive measures and public attention persisted.
When Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End?
Reviews ongoing hurdles to ending the pandemic, including the emergence of new variants and inequitable vaccine distribution, which have prolonged the pandemic and caused unnecessary deaths.
Comprehensive Review of COVID-19: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, Diagnostic Advancements, and Post-pandemic Strategies
A 2026 review concludes that while acute mortality has decreased due to vaccination and population immunity, the focus must now shift to managing endemic transmission and the chronic sequelae of Long COVID (PASC).