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Could enhanced geothermal systems reshape the clean energy transition over the next decade?

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) could reshape clean energy by providing firm, dispatchable power, but cost and seismic risks remain key hurdles.

Direct answer

Yes, enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) could significantly reshape the clean energy transition over the next decade, but they are not a silver bullet. EGS can provide firm, dispatchable electricity—unlike intermittent solar and wind—and costs are projected to become competitive with market prices by 2027, with a levelized cost of electricity around $80/MWh [2]. However, challenges like induced seismicity and high upfront drilling costs must be managed, and the technology is still scaling up. Across the studies here, the strongest evidence points to EGS becoming a viable clean firm power source within a decade, especially if advanced drilling techniques continue to lower costs [2][3].

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What does EGS offer that solar and wind cannot?

The key advantage of enhanced geothermal systems is that they provide clean, firm, and dispatchable power—meaning they can run 24/7 regardless of weather, unlike solar and wind which are intermittent. A 2025 review in Nature Reviews Clean Technology explains that EGS can deliver stable baseload electricity and, with further development, potentially dispatchable power that can be ramped up or down to match grid demand [2]. This makes EGS a critical complement to variable renewables, helping to stabilize a grid that is increasingly reliant on them.

Additionally, EGS can be deployed in many more locations than conventional geothermal, which requires natural hot water reservoirs. By engineering permeability in hot, dry rock, EGS unlocks geothermal potential across vast areas [2]. One innovative approach highlighted in a 2025 study is repurposing depleted oil and gas wells for geothermal energy, which can dramatically cut drilling costs and environmental impact by using existing infrastructure [3].

What are the main hurdles—cost and induced seismicity?

The two biggest barriers to EGS deployment are high upfront capital costs and the risk of induced earthquakes. The 2025 review notes that EGS projects have historically been hindered by these issues, but advanced drilling techniques—like horizontal drilling and multistage stimulation borrowed from the oil and gas industry—are rapidly driving costs down [2]. The same source projects that by 2027, EGS plant capital costs could reach $4,500 per kilowatt, with a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of about $80 per megawatt-hour, which is competitive with current market electricity prices in the US [2].

A separate 2022 techno-economic study of supercritical CO2-based EGS found higher LCOE values—up to 219.5 EUR/MWh for an indirect cycle—due to lower electricity output and high investment costs [5]. This highlights that cost competitiveness depends heavily on the specific system design and geological conditions. The 2025 review emphasizes that managing induced seismicity risk is essential for public acceptance and regulatory approval, and that further research is needed to make EGS systems flexible and safe [2].

How does EGS fit into the broader clean energy transition?

EGS alone cannot solve the climate challenge, but it can play a crucial supporting role alongside aggressive climate policies and other clean technologies. A 2022 modeling study on China found that even with ambitious clean-air policies, without deep decarbonization (like limiting warming to 1.5-2°C), air pollution deaths would not decline due to an aging population [1]. This underscores the need for multiple solutions, including firm clean power like EGS, to replace fossil fuels entirely.

Digitalization is another key enabler for integrating EGS into the grid. A 2023 paper on digitalization for the clean energy transition argues that data sharing, smart grids, and digital tools are essential for managing a system with high shares of renewables and distributed energy resources [4]. EGS, with its dispatchable nature, could be a perfect partner for digital grid management, providing flexible backup when solar and wind output dips. The 2025 review on repurposing oil and gas wells also notes that geothermal has very low lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, making it one of the most sustainable energy sources [3].

About These Sources

This answer is built on 5 peer-reviewed studies — published from 2022 to 2025, 2 from 2024 or later, 2 in Q1 journals, collectively cited 214 times — selected as the most relevant from 6 studies that passed quality screening, drawn from 60 papers retrieved from a database of over 500 million.

Sources used in this answer

1

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study

This modeling study on China found that without ambitious climate mitigation (e.g., limiting warming to 1.5-2°C), PM2.5-related deaths would not decline by 2050 despite air quality improvements, due to an aging population. Ambitious climate policies combined with clean-air policies could reduce deaths by 0.32-0.55 million by 2050.

2

Enhanced geothermal systems for clean firm energy generation

This 2025 review in Nature Reviews Clean Technology concludes that EGS can provide clean, firm, dispatchable electricity. It projects that by 2027, EGS plant capital costs could reach $4,500/kW and LCOE ~$80/MWh, becoming competitive with market prices, but notes induced seismicity risk must be managed.

3

Transforming Depleted Oil and Gas Wells into Geothermal Energy Assets: A Sustainable Vision for Energy Transition

This 2025 study examines repurposing depleted oil and gas wells for geothermal energy, highlighting cost savings from using existing infrastructure and low lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions. It presents case studies from California, Alberta, the Philippines, and the UK.

4

Digitalisation: an enabler for the clean energy transition

This 2023 paper argues that digitalization (data sharing, smart grids, digital skills) is essential for integrating high shares of renewables and enabling consumer participation in the clean energy transition, but notes that cybersecurity and data privacy safeguards are needed.

5

Techno-Economic Assessment of the Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Geothermal Systems

This 2022 techno-economic assessment of supercritical CO2-based EGS found that LCOE can be as high as 219.5 EUR/MWh for indirect cycles, due to lower electricity production and high investment costs, showing that cost competitiveness varies significantly by design.