Is energy poverty actually declining? The evidence is mixed.
The answer depends heavily on which developing region you look at. In China, a 2025 study using data from 2014 to 2020 found that the contribution of energy costs to household poverty has significantly decreased, likely due to national policies like the Clean Heating Initiative and Targeted Poverty Alleviation [1]. This suggests real progress in reducing energy poverty there.
However, in Pakistan, a 2022 study analyzing eight waves of national survey data from 1998 to 2019 found that despite economic growth, energy poverty actually increased over those two decades [2]. The study concluded that Pakistan is unlikely to meet UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 (affordable and clean energy for all) by 2030 [2]. This shows that economic growth alone does not guarantee reduced energy poverty.
Globally, a 2025 review of best practices identified Africa as the most severely affected region, with energy poverty remaining widespread and inadequately addressed in policy [4]. So while some pockets of improvement exist, the overall picture is one of persistent and even worsening energy poverty in many developing nations.
What factors are driving these trends?
Several key factors influence whether energy poverty declines or worsens. Education plays a major role: a 2021 study of 30 developing economies from 2001 to 2016 found that higher education levels consistently reduce energy poverty [6]. Households with less education are significantly more likely to be energy poor [2].
Financial sector development also helps. A 2023 study covering 110 developing countries from 1990 to 2020 found that better access to banking and credit services reduces energy poverty [5]. Economic growth, foreign investment, and urbanization also support energy access [5].
On the other hand, some technological advances can backfire. A 2023 study of 56 developing countries found that the emergence of nanotechnology was associated with a short-term increase in energy poverty, possibly because it diverts resources from more accessible solutions [9]. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic worsened energy poverty in Pakistan, linking it to higher income, health, and educational poverty [10].
Why is it hard to get a clear answer?
Part of the difficulty in answering this question is that energy poverty is measured differently across studies. In developed countries, it's usually about the affordability of energy bills, while in developing countries, it's more about the physical availability of electricity and modern fuels [8]. This means that a country might look good on one measure but bad on another.
A 2023 study proposed a new composite metric for 54 developing countries that accounts not just for electricity access, but also for resilience to losing that access [7]. This revealed that some countries are much more vulnerable to conflicts and economic shocks than others, which can rapidly reverse any gains [7]. The concept of 'hidden energy poverty'—where people have a connection but cannot afford to use it—is also gaining attention [3].
Because there is no single, universally accepted way to measure energy poverty, comparing trends across countries and over time remains challenging [8]. This means that any answer about whether it is declining must be interpreted with caution, acknowledging the specific definition and data used.
Sources used in this answer
Leveraging Explainable AI to Decode Energy Poverty in China: Implications for SDGs and National Policy
In China (2014-2020), energy cost contributions to household poverty decreased, likely due to national policies, with the predictive model achieving 98.23% accuracy.
Energy poverty trends and determinants in Pakistan: Empirical evidence from eight waves of HIES 1998–2019
In Pakistan (1998-2019), energy poverty increased despite economic growth, making SDG 7 by 2030 unlikely.
Energy poverty and beyond: The state, contexts, and trajectories of energy poverty studies in Asia
Energy poverty research in Asia is less developed than in the Global North, with concepts like 'hidden energy poverty' and 'cooling poverty' emerging.
Addressing energy poverty: Regional trends and examples of best practice
Africa is the most severely affected region by energy poverty, which remains inadequately addressed in policy.
Financial sector development and energy poverty: empirical evidence from developing countries
Financial sector development, economic growth, foreign investment, and urbanization all help reduce energy poverty in 110 developing countries (1990-2020).
Energy poverty and education: Fresh evidence from a panel of developing countries
Higher education levels consistently reduce energy poverty across 30 developing economies (2001-2016).
Gauging energy poverty in developing countries with a composite metric of electricity access
A new composite metric for 54 developing countries shows that some are more vulnerable to losing electricity access due to conflicts and shocks.
Developments and Trends in Energy Poverty Research—Literature Visualization Analysis Based on CiteSpace
Energy poverty definitions differ: developed countries focus on affordability, developing countries on availability of energy.
Does nanotechnology contribute to energy poverty reduction?
Nanotechnology development is associated with a short-term increase in energy poverty in 56 developing countries (2012-2019).
Modeling the impact of energy poverty on income poverty, health poverty, educational poverty, and environmental poverty: a roadmap towards environmental sustainability.
COVID-19 worsened energy poverty in Pakistan, which in turn increased income, health, educational, and environmental poverty.