Is soil degradation a bigger global threat than climate change?

Why comparing soil degradation and climate change as separate threats misses the point

The two problems are locked in a vicious cycle. Climate change directly worsens soil degradation: a 2022 systematic review of 224 modeling studies found that global soil erosion is projected to increase toward the end of the 21st century, with the steepest rises in semi-arid regions [2]. At the same time, degraded soil releases carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. A Finnish study of feed crops found that N2O emissions from peat soil degradation were a major contributor to the climate impact of crop production, and that reducing those emissions offered a high mitigation potential [1]. This means soil degradation doesn't just sit alongside climate change—it actively fuels it.

The feedback loop also threatens food security. A 2022 Nature study showed that if global warming exceeds about 2.5°C by 2060, crop yields for bioenergy with carbon capture (BECCS) would drop so low that the Paris climate goal of 2°C could become unachievable by 2200 [3]. In other words, climate-driven soil degradation can undermine the very technologies we're counting on to fight climate change. The two threats are not in competition; they are a single, compounding crisis.

Soil conservation can offset climate-driven erosion—but only if we act now

The good news is that protecting soil is one of the most effective climate actions available. The same 2022 review of 224 studies found that reforestation, agricultural land abandonment, and soil conservation practices can entirely compensate for the impact of climate change on soil erosion [2]. That is a remarkable finding: it means we have the tools to break the cycle, but they require immediate and widespread implementation.

However, delay is dangerous. The Nature study warned that if large-scale mitigation is postponed to 2060, the feedback between climate change and crop yields becomes irreversible, leading to serious food crises [3]. A global database of 217 meta-analyses on soil organic carbon (SOC) further confirms that land management and land-use changes are major drivers of SOC dynamics, and that increasing SOC is a viable natural climate solution [5]. The evidence is clear: soil is not a passive victim of climate change—it is a frontline tool for fighting it, but only if we act before the damage becomes self-reinforcing.

Climate change emerges as the top threat to pollinators—a key link between soil health and food production

Soil degradation and climate change also converge in their impact on pollinators, which are essential for over 87% of flowering plant species and 87 of the world's leading food crops [4]. A 2024 review identified climate change as the most prominent and hardest-to-control threat to pollinators, because it alters water and temperature patterns, reduces food resources, and shrinks suitable habitats [4]. Healthy soils support diverse plant communities that feed pollinators; degraded soils cannot. So when soil degrades, pollinator decline accelerates, which in turn reduces crop yields—creating yet another feedback loop that threatens food security.

This means that answering 'which is a bigger threat' is the wrong question. The evidence shows that climate change and soil degradation are two sides of the same coin. Tackling one without the other is like trying to fix a leaky boat by bailing water while ignoring the hole. The most effective strategy, backed by the research, is to pursue climate mitigation and soil conservation simultaneously—before the feedback loops become irreversible.

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