Is the global digital divide narrowing or widening over time?

Is basic internet access and device ownership actually getting more equal?

Yes, the most visible part of the digital divide—who owns a smartphone or can get online—has been shrinking steadily over the past decade. A global meta-analysis of people with psychiatric disorders found that smartphone ownership jumped from 32% in 2012-2013 to 77% in 2020-2021, and current internet use rose from 65% in 2010-2011 to 87% in 2018-2019 [1]. Compared to the general US population, the gap in smartphone ownership narrowed by 8.9 percentage points, and the gap in internet use narrowed by 10 percentage points over the same periods [1]. This means that even groups historically left behind are catching up in terms of having a device and getting online.

A large national study in China confirms this trend for older adults. From 2011 to 2020, the share of adults aged 60+ who lacked any digital access fell from 88.0% to 47.3%, and the share who never used the internet dropped from 99.0% to 75.7% [2]. These are huge improvements in just nine years, showing that the basic access gap is closing even in a rapidly aging population.

So if access is improving, why do experts still talk about a widening divide?

Because the nature of the divide is shifting from 'haves vs. have-nots' to 'who benefits and who doesn't.' The same Chinese study that showed falling access gaps also found that the remaining digital divide was strongly linked to worse health outcomes: older adults without digital access had more functional limitations, more chronic diseases, higher rates of depression, and greater social isolation [2]. In other words, as the basic gap narrows, those still left out are more disadvantaged than ever, because digital access has become essential for daily life, healthcare, and social connection.

Furthermore, within groups that do have access, usage gaps remain large. In the Chinese study, the digital usage divide (not using the internet even when it's available) only fell from 99% to 75.7% over the decade—still three-quarters of older adults who could go online did not [2]. And the psychiatric population study identified specific groups that remain at risk: older individuals, men, those with less education, the unemployed, and people with psychosis were all less likely to use the internet regularly [1]. So while the average is improving, inequality within the digital world is persistent and even deepening for the most vulnerable.

Does the divide look different in rich countries versus poorer ones?

Yes, and the gap between regions is not closing as fast. A bibliometric analysis comparing research on digitalization in European Union countries versus Western Balkan countries found that the two regions focus on very different aspects of the digital divide [4]. EU research emphasizes digital technologies for economic growth and sustainability, while Western Balkan research focuses on catching up in basic areas like education and business digitalization after COVID-19 [4]. This suggests that richer regions are already worrying about advanced uses of technology, while poorer regions are still struggling with foundational access.

At the global level, the economic digital divide is also being shaped by international tax policies. One analysis argues that globalization and digitalization have allowed multinational corporations and wealthy individuals to avoid taxes, reducing government revenues that fund public services like internet infrastructure in poorer countries [5]. This creates a vicious cycle: countries that need digital investment the most have fewer resources to provide it, potentially widening the economic gap between nations even as individual access improves within some countries.

Sources used in this answer

Related research questions