How might weather actually cause joint pain? Humidity and temperature changes are the main suspects.
A 2023 animal study provides the clearest experimental evidence for a mechanism [2]. Researchers exposed rats with induced rheumatoid arthritis to high humidity. The high-humidity environment made their arthritis worse: they had more cartilage damage, higher arthritis scores, and increased levels of inflammatory chemicals (proinflammatory cytokines). The study also found that high humidity changed the rats' gut bacteria and metabolites in ways linked to inflammation and oxidative stress. This suggests that humidity doesn't just 'feel' bad—it may actively promote inflammation.
A 2025 review of human studies confirms that temperature and humidity are the most commonly reported triggers [3]. For osteoarthritis, patients often report more pain and stiffness with lower temperatures and higher humidity. For fibromyalgia, temperature changes (both hot and cold) can lower pain thresholds. For multiple sclerosis, heat can temporarily worsen symptoms (the Uhthoff phenomenon). The review notes that the mechanisms are still not fully understood, but the pattern across different chronic pain conditions is consistent.
Why is the evidence still mixed? Many studies rely on self-reports, and not everyone feels the weather.
Despite the strong belief among patients, scientific studies have produced inconsistent results. A 2021 protocol for a systematic review on osteoarthritis and weather notes that 'scientific studies have documented inconsistent results' and that no comprehensive meta-analysis has yet been done [5]. This means we don't yet have a definitive, large-scale human study that proves a universal link.
The 2025 surgery study [1] illustrates this gap: while 18% of patients reported weather-related pain before surgery, that means 82% did not. So the majority of arthritis patients do not feel their pain is weather-dependent. The 2024 mobile app study [4] acknowledges that many patients report worse symptoms in rainy weather, but it also highlights that there is no standard way to track this, which is why the authors are building a tool to collect better data. The evidence is strong enough to say weather affects some people, but not strong enough to say it affects everyone or to predict who will be affected.
About These Sources
This answer is built on 5 peer-reviewed studies — published from 2021 to 2025, 3 from 2024 or later, 1 in Q1 journals — selected as the most relevant from 5 studies that passed quality screening, drawn from 46 papers retrieved from a database of over 500 million.
Sources used in this answer
Weathering the storm : the impact of total hip arthroplasty on weather-related pain.
In a survey of 331 hip replacement patients, 18% reported weather-related pain before surgery; 69% of those had complete relief after surgery, but 9% developed new weather-related pain afterward. Patients with rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, or osteonecrosis, and older or higher-BMI patients, were more likely to have persistent weather-related pain.
Impact of humid climate on rheumatoid arthritis faecal microbiome and metabolites
In an animal study, high humidity worsened arthritis in rats with induced rheumatoid arthritis, increasing cartilage damage, arthritis scores, and proinflammatory cytokines. It also altered gut bacteria and metabolites in ways linked to inflammation and oxidative stress.
Weathering the Pain: Ambient Temperature's Role in Chronic Pain Syndromes.
A review of chronic pain conditions (fibromyalgia, multiple sclerosis, complex regional pain syndrome, osteoarthritis) found that temperature changes and humidity are commonly reported triggers, with osteoarthritis patients often reporting more pain and stiffness in cold, humid conditions.
Weather-Based Arthritis Tracking: A Mobile Mechanism for Preventive Strategies
This paper describes the development of a mobile app to help arthritis patients track how weather affects their symptoms, noting that many patients report worse pain in rainy weather but that no standard tracking mechanism exists.
Association between climate conditions and osteoarthritis: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis
This protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis on osteoarthritis and climate conditions states that scientific studies have produced inconsistent results and that no comprehensive meta-analysis has yet been conducted.